Woke up and router inaccessible - Can't factory reset

Went to bed last night to a nice stable internet connection.

Woke up this morning to everything disconnected.  Go to login to the Orbi to reset it and the app won't connect.  Log into my desktop and open the browser and hit the webpage address only to get Connection Refused.

So I walk over to the router and satellite and power cycle them both.  They come back and.. no connection.  So I attempt the factory reset procedures detailed on the site (holding reset button with a paperclip for at least 7 seconds).  I'll note that this documentation states CLEARLY that things like SSID will be wiped.

I wait a few minutes and.. well it boots back up but all my settings are still there apparently as my SSID is still customized.

So I dig further.  I try the tftp method of applying a firmware over the top of a broken one.  The router takes it and it boots up.  Same settings and same symptoms.  So I try again, rolling it back a few firmware versions to one I know I had been running for 6+ months with no issues.  Same problems with connectivity.

How the hell do you *actually* factory reset this stupid thing?